plausible futures

However, a split in the industry appeared when two of the leading firms — DNA2.0 in the U.S. and Geneart in Germany — proposed to minimize the second phase of security screening, i.e. using a human expert, and to rely almost entirely on the first phase of screening, i.e. using only computers. Because a mainly computerized system would not require the time consuming and expensive work of an expert, it could be implemented quickly and cheaply. However, removing the detailed human expert examination obviously increases the possibility that dangerous orders could get through the screening, as the computer screening process is only as good as the databases it calls upon. Debates and divisions continue within the industry as to the best approach.

Source: Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

Kinetic Energy Anti-Satellite [KE ASAT]

Lessons from the Schriever X space wargame, which took place at Nellis AFB in May, are driving some hard thinking among deterrence strategists. In the second US Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium in Omaha this week, panel speakers explored what turns out to be a nightmarishly complex issue.

One big lesson from Schriever X, which simulated the world of 2022, is that “it’s hard to do attribution”, according to Lt Gen Larry James, boss of Stratcom’s Joing Functional Component Command for Space. “It’s easy with an ASAT” (anti-satellite weapon) “but it is not easy with an object that has been there for years.”

Source: Avation Week.

Of all the tasks you would undoubtedly love to hand off to a robot assistant, fetching a soccer ball is probably low on the list. And yet in 2010, there is no humanoid robot on Earth that can consistently do something as simple as turn, spot, approach, and kick. Never mind helping Grandma to bed or starching your shirts. Broken into a daisy chain of input, calculation and action, just kicking a ball is incredibly hard. It’s so difficult, in fact, that engineers from all over the world have embraced it as the modern era’s standardized test of humanoid-robot sophistication, and they converge each June at an event called RoboCup to try it. This year, only one adult-size, self-contained, humanoid robot in this country can even attempt it.

Source: Popular Science. Also see “Rise of the Helpful Machines” from Popular Science.

Daniel Ellsberg, a former US military analyst, has described the disclosure of the Afghan war logs as on the scale of his leaking of the “Pentagon Papers” in 1971 revealing how the US public was misled about the Vietnam war.

“An outrageous escalation of the war is taking place,” he said. “Look at these cables and see if they give anybody the occasion to say the answer is ‘resources”. He added: “After $300bn and 10 years, the Taliban is stronger than they have ever been … We are recruiting for them.”

However, the equivalent of the Pentagon Papers on Afghanistan – top secret papers relating to policy – had yet to be leaked, he said.

Source: The Guardian. View the Kabul War Diary from Wikileaks. Also see “Hypnotic illusions at the Wikileaks Show” from The Register.

From the perspective of a futurist this story tells everything about the future of the news media. The giants of news distribution are loosing their relevance to independent meta-sources like Wikileaks. The recent introduction of “pay-walls” by Murdoch on several general news services is a strategy of making themselves obsolete. Adding to the demise of mainstream news media comes the ereader.

Also read “Data, diffusion, impact: Five big questions the Wikileaks story raises about the future of journalism” from Niemanlab.